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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1013, period of time : 08-11-2010 - 03-26-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.83, variance V = 3.14, SD = 1.77, E/V = 0.90, Min = 0, Max = 14
P1 = 46.9%, draw = 18.1%, P2 = 35.0%, total 0 = 5.6%, over 2.5 = 52.1%, under 2.5 = 47.9%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.61, variance V = 2.85, SD = 1.69, E/V = 0.56, Min = 0, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.23, variance V = 1.76, SD = 1.33, E/V = 0.70, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.38, variance V = 6.07, SD = 2.46, E/V = 0.06, Min = -7, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Monday
10-14-2024
04:33:21 UTC