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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 906, period of time : 08-22-2007 - 11-12-2020


Match total

Average per match E = 2.80, variance V = 3.11, SD = 1.76, E/V = 0.90, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 47.2%, draw = 18.3%, P2 = 34.4%, total 0 = 6.3%, over 2.5 = 51.9%, under 2.5 = 48.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.58, variance V = 2.67, SD = 1.63, E/V = 0.59, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.22, variance V = 1.77, SD = 1.33, E/V = 0.69, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.36, variance V = 5.77, SD = 2.40, E/V = 0.06, Min = -7, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europe Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Tuesday
06-28-2022
14:52:12 UTC