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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Portugal. Premier League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2886, period of time : 12-09-2011 - 11-30-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.57, variance V = 2.60, SD = 1.61, E/V = 0.99, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 44.5%, draw = 24.5%, P2 = 31.0%, total 0 = 7.8%, over 2.5 = 47.4%, under 2.5 = 52.6%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Portugal. Premier League: Poisson and Total PDF
Portugal. Premier League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.43, variance V = 1.55, SD = 1.24, E/V = 0.92, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Portugal. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.14, variance V = 1.32, SD = 1.15, E/V = 0.86, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Portugal. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.15, SD = 1.77, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Portugal. Premier League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Sunday
12-05-2021
05:06:39 UTC