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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Scotland. Premier League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1765, period of time : 09-30-2016 - 05-26-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.64, variance V = 2.56, SD = 1.60, E/V = 1.03, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 43.6%, draw = 23.8%, P2 = 32.6%, total 0 = 7.1%, over 2.5 = 50.2%, under 2.5 = 49.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Scotland. Premier League: Poisson and Total PDF
Scotland. Premier League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.46, variance V = 1.70, SD = 1.30, E/V = 0.86, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Scotland. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.18, variance V = 1.42, SD = 1.19, E/V = 0.83, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Scotland. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.28, variance V = 3.66, SD = 1.91, E/V = 0.08, Min = -9, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Scotland. Premier League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Wednesday
10-28-2026
09:07:14 UTC