Mathematical statistics of goals - Football

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)

Quantity of matches (sample size) : 73813, period of time : 11-29-2019 - 11-28-2022

Match total

Average per match E = 2.63, variance V = 2.77, SD = 1.67, E/V = 0.95, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 43.1%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 31.0%, total 0 = 8.1%, over 2.5 = 48.9%, under 2.5 = 51.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.45, variance V = 1.63, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.18, variance V = 1.35, SD = 1.16, E/V = 0.87, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.27, variance V = 3.19, SD = 1.79, E/V = 0.08, Min = -13, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)