Mathematical statistics of goals - Football

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)

Quantity of matches (sample size) : 81761, period of time : 11-28-2020 - 11-28-2023

Match total

Average per match E = 2.63, variance V = 2.79, SD = 1.67, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 14
P1 = 43.6%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 30.4%, total 0 = 8.1%, over 2.5 = 48.7%, under 2.5 = 51.3%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.46, variance V = 1.64, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.17, variance V = 1.34, SD = 1.16, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.29, variance V = 3.18, SD = 1.78, E/V = 0.09, Min = -12, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)