Mathematical statistics of goals - Football

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)

Quantity of matches (sample size) : 69729, period of time : 05-10-2019 - 05-10-2022

Match total

Average per match E = 2.63, variance V = 2.77, SD = 1.66, E/V = 0.95, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 43.1%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 30.9%, total 0 = 8.1%, over 2.5 = 48.9%, under 2.5 = 51.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.45, variance V = 1.63, SD = 1.27, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.18, variance V = 1.34, SD = 1.16, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.27, variance V = 3.17, SD = 1.78, E/V = 0.09, Min = -13, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)