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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Germany. Bundesliga

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 3071, period of time : 02-09-2013 - 02-05-2023


Match total

Average per match E = 3.00, variance V = 3.00, SD = 1.73, E/V = 1.00, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 44.9%, draw = 24.5%, P2 = 30.6%, total 0 = 6.1%, over 2.5 = 57.7%, under 2.5 = 42.3%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total PDF
Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.68, variance V = 1.92, SD = 1.39, E/V = 0.87, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.33, variance V = 1.53, SD = 1.24, E/V = 0.87, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.35, variance V = 3.90, SD = 1.97, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Germany. Bundesliga: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Wednesday
02-08-2023
23:35:25 UTC