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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Germany. Bundesliga

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 3079, period of time : 08-24-2012 - 05-19-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.98, variance V = 2.96, SD = 1.72, E/V = 1.01, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 44.8%, draw = 24.6%, P2 = 30.6%, total 0 = 6.2%, over 2.5 = 57.4%, under 2.5 = 42.6%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total PDF
Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.66, variance V = 1.88, SD = 1.37, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.32, variance V = 1.51, SD = 1.23, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Germany. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.34, variance V = 3.82, SD = 1.95, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Germany. Bundesliga: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Thursday
05-26-2022
10:31:55 UTC