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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Sweden. Allsvenskan

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1872, period of time : 09-21-2016 - 07-15-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.78, variance V = 2.69, SD = 1.64, E/V = 1.04, Min = 0, Max = 8
P1 = 43.6%, draw = 24.4%, P2 = 32.1%, total 0 = 6.6%, over 2.5 = 53.8%, under 2.5 = 46.2%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Sweden. Allsvenskan: Poisson and Total PDF
Sweden. Allsvenskan: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.54, variance V = 1.69, SD = 1.30, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Sweden. Allsvenskan: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.24, variance V = 1.35, SD = 1.16, E/V = 0.92, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Sweden. Allsvenskan: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.38, SD = 1.84, E/V = 0.09, Min = -6, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Sweden. Allsvenskan: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Wednesday
10-28-2026
09:07:14 UTC