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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Israel. Ligat Ha'Al

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1890, period of time : 09-21-2016 - 05-25-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.45, variance V = 2.29, SD = 1.51, E/V = 1.07, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 39.0%, draw = 26.8%, P2 = 34.2%, total 0 = 8.5%, over 2.5 = 44.3%, under 2.5 = 55.7%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Israel. Ligat Ha'Al: Poisson and Total PDF
Israel. Ligat Ha'Al: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.29, variance V = 1.42, SD = 1.19, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Israel. Ligat Ha'Al: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.16, variance V = 1.24, SD = 1.11, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Israel. Ligat Ha'Al: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.12, variance V = 3.02, SD = 1.74, E/V = 0.04, Min = -6, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Israel. Ligat Ha'Al: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Saturday
09-19-2026
18:14:48 UTC