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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Austria. Bundesliga

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1740, period of time : 05-13-2012 - 10-03-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.98, variance V = 3.13, SD = 1.77, E/V = 0.95, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 43.4%, draw = 23.7%, P2 = 32.9%, total 0 = 6.0%, over 2.5 = 56.4%, under 2.5 = 43.6%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total PDF
Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.62, variance V = 1.99, SD = 1.41, E/V = 0.82, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.36, variance V = 1.68, SD = 1.30, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.27, variance V = 4.22, SD = 2.05, E/V = 0.06, Min = -9, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Austria. Bundesliga: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Saturday
05-21-2022
15:57:10 UTC