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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Austria. Bundesliga

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1827, period of time : 12-04-2011 - 10-03-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.94, variance V = 3.15, SD = 1.78, E/V = 0.93, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 43.4%, draw = 24.1%, P2 = 32.6%, total 0 = 6.6%, over 2.5 = 55.2%, under 2.5 = 44.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total PDF
Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.60, variance V = 1.97, SD = 1.40, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.33, variance V = 1.67, SD = 1.29, E/V = 0.80, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Austria. Bundesliga: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.27, variance V = 4.12, SD = 2.03, E/V = 0.07, Min = -9, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Austria. Bundesliga: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Sunday
12-05-2021
05:08:23 UTC