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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Northern Ireland. Premier League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2259, period of time : 09-22-2012 - 09-17-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 3.03, variance V = 3.03, SD = 1.74, E/V = 1.00, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 43.9%, draw = 20.6%, P2 = 35.6%, total 0 = 4.3%, over 2.5 = 58.3%, under 2.5 = 41.7%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Northern Ireland. Premier League: Poisson and Total PDF
Northern Ireland. Premier League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.63, variance V = 1.92, SD = 1.39, E/V = 0.85, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Northern Ireland. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.40, variance V = 1.65, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.85, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Northern Ireland. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.23, variance V = 4.11, SD = 2.03, E/V = 0.06, Min = -8, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Northern Ireland. Premier League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Wednesday
09-28-2022
20:24:25 UTC