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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europa Conference League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 377, period of time : 07-06-2021 - 12-09-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.70, variance V = 2.94, SD = 1.71, E/V = 0.92, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 48.0%, draw = 24.1%, P2 = 27.9%, total 0 = 8.0%, over 2.5 = 49.1%, under 2.5 = 50.9%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.61, variance V = 1.98, SD = 1.41, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.09, variance V = 1.31, SD = 1.15, E/V = 0.83, Min = 0, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.52, variance V = 3.64, SD = 1.91, E/V = 0.14, Min = -5, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Monday
01-17-2022
09:46:19 UTC