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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europa Conference League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 792, period of time : 07-06-2021 - 11-03-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.63, variance V = 2.89, SD = 1.70, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 47.9%, draw = 23.0%, P2 = 29.2%, total 0 = 8.6%, over 2.5 = 49.0%, under 2.5 = 51.0%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.56, variance V = 1.97, SD = 1.40, E/V = 0.79, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.07, variance V = 1.25, SD = 1.12, E/V = 0.86, Min = 0, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.48, variance V = 3.55, SD = 1.88, E/V = 0.14, Min = -5, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europa Conference League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Sunday
02-05-2023
07:18:11 UTC