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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. World Championship U20

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 250, period of time : 06-21-2013 - 06-11-2023


Match total

Average per match E = 2.81, variance V = 3.39, SD = 1.84, E/V = 0.83, Min = 0, Max = 12
P1 = 36.0%, draw = 25.6%, P2 = 38.4%, total 0 = 8.8%, over 2.5 = 53.6%, under 2.5 = 46.4%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

World Championship U20: Poisson and Total PDF
World Championship U20: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.47, variance V = 2.73, SD = 1.65, E/V = 0.54, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

World Championship U20: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.34, variance V = 1.59, SD = 1.26, E/V = 0.84, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

World Championship U20: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.13, variance V = 5.26, SD = 2.29, E/V = 0.03, Min = -6, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

World Championship U20: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Thursday
10-29-2026
21:31:52 UTC