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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. World Championship

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 256, period of time : 06-11-2010 - 12-18-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.50, variance V = 2.97, SD = 1.72, E/V = 0.84, Min = 0, Max = 8
P1 = 39.1%, draw = 25.0%, P2 = 35.9%, total 0 = 10.9%, over 2.5 = 46.9%, under 2.5 = 53.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

World Championship: Poisson and Total PDF
World Championship: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.32, variance V = 1.78, SD = 1.33, E/V = 0.74, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

World Championship: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.18, variance V = 1.32, SD = 1.15, E/V = 0.90, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

World Championship: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.14, variance V = 3.22, SD = 1.79, E/V = 0.04, Min = -6, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

World Championship: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Wednesday
04-17-2024
13:23:58 UTC