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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. Wales. Premier League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1918, period of time : 11-22-2013 - 11-19-2023


Match total

Average per match E = 3.08, variance V = 3.62, SD = 1.90, E/V = 0.85, Min = 0, Max = 12
P1 = 44.9%, draw = 20.7%, P2 = 34.4%, total 0 = 6.1%, over 2.5 = 58.1%, under 2.5 = 41.9%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Wales. Premier League: Poisson and Total PDF
Wales. Premier League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.67, variance V = 2.34, SD = 1.53, E/V = 0.71, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Wales. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.42, variance V = 2.02, SD = 1.42, E/V = 0.70, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Wales. Premier League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.25, variance V = 5.10, SD = 2.26, E/V = 0.05, Min = -12, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

Wales. Premier League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Friday
12-01-2023
16:50:42 UTC