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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONMEBOL. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 293, period of time : 03-28-2009 - 03-29-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.65, variance V = 2.42, SD = 1.56, E/V = 1.09, Min = 0, Max = 7
P1 = 51.9%, draw = 23.2%, P2 = 24.9%, total 0 = 6.8%, over 2.5 = 50.2%, under 2.5 = 49.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.66, variance V = 1.70, SD = 1.30, E/V = 0.97, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.99, variance V = 1.12, SD = 1.06, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.66, variance V = 3.22, SD = 1.80, E/V = 0.21, Min = -4, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Tuesday
02-27-2024
17:32:45 UTC