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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONMEBOL. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 323, period of time : 10-13-2007 - 11-17-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.62, variance V = 2.65, SD = 1.63, E/V = 0.99, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.65, variance V = 1.85, SD = 1.36, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.97, variance V = 1.12, SD = 1.06, E/V = 0.87, Min = 0, Max = 5
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.68, variance V = 3.28, SD = 1.81, E/V = 0.21, Min = -4, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONMEBOL. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Tuesday
12-07-2021
12:52:21 UTC