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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONMEBOL. South American Cup

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1101, period of time : 12-05-2012 - 10-01-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.27, variance V = 2.46, SD = 1.57, E/V = 0.92, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 48.1%, draw = 25.1%, P2 = 26.9%, total 0 = 11.6%, over 2.5 = 39.7%, under 2.5 = 60.3%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONMEBOL. South American Cup: Poisson and Total PDF
CONMEBOL. South American Cup: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.37, variance V = 1.53, SD = 1.24, E/V = 0.90, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. South American Cup: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.90, variance V = 1.11, SD = 1.06, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. South American Cup: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.48, variance V = 2.84, SD = 1.68, E/V = 0.17, Min = -9, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONMEBOL. South American Cup: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Monday
12-05-2022
05:39:55 UTC