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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1213, period of time : 01-23-2017 - 06-08-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.51, variance V = 2.80, SD = 1.67, E/V = 0.90, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 50.4%, draw = 24.5%, P2 = 25.1%, total 0 = 9.5%, over 2.5 = 45.2%, under 2.5 = 54.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup: Poisson and Total PDF
CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.57, variance V = 2.00, SD = 1.41, E/V = 0.78, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.95, variance V = 1.07, SD = 1.03, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.62, variance V = 3.33, SD = 1.82, E/V = 0.19, Min = -6, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONMEBOL. Libertadores Cup: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Friday
11-06-2026
06:12:35 UTC