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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONCACAF. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 344, period of time : 08-20-2008 - 03-31-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.81, variance V = 3.95, SD = 1.99, E/V = 0.71, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 51.7%, draw = 22.4%, P2 = 25.9%, total 0 = 7.8%, over 2.5 = 50.9%, under 2.5 = 49.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.68, variance V = 2.57, SD = 1.60, E/V = 0.65, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.13, variance V = 2.71, SD = 1.65, E/V = 0.42, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.55, variance V = 6.62, SD = 2.57, E/V = 0.08, Min = -13, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Monday
09-26-2022
10:28:56 UTC