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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONCACAF. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 320, period of time : 08-20-2008 - 11-17-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.86, variance V = 4.05, SD = 2.01, E/V = 0.71, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 51.6%, draw = 22.8%, P2 = 25.6%, total 0 = 7.8%, over 2.5 = 52.5%, under 2.5 = 47.5%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.71, variance V = 2.62, SD = 1.62, E/V = 0.65, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.16, variance V = 2.85, SD = 1.69, E/V = 0.41, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.55, variance V = 6.90, SD = 2.63, E/V = 0.08, Min = -13, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Sunday
12-05-2021
05:42:17 UTC