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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONCACAF. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 299, period of time : 06-04-2009 - 03-31-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.81, variance V = 4.18, SD = 2.04, E/V = 0.67, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 50.5%, draw = 22.4%, P2 = 27.1%, total 0 = 8.4%, over 2.5 = 50.2%, under 2.5 = 49.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.64, variance V = 2.62, SD = 1.62, E/V = 0.63, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.17, variance V = 2.95, SD = 1.72, E/V = 0.40, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.47, variance V = 6.97, SD = 2.64, E/V = 0.07, Min = -13, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Thursday
04-18-2024
15:03:44 UTC