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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. World Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 952, period of time : 08-20-2008 - 09-08-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.83, variance V = 3.29, SD = 1.81, E/V = 0.86, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.59, variance V = 2.61, SD = 1.61, E/V = 0.61, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.24, variance V = 2.03, SD = 1.43, E/V = 0.61, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.36, variance V = 5.99, SD = 2.45, E/V = 0.06, Min = -8, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Thursday
09-23-2021
14:35:38 UTC