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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. World Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 1064, period of time : 08-20-2008 - 11-16-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.86, variance V = 3.31, SD = 1.82, E/V = 0.86, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 44.8%, draw = 20.8%, P2 = 34.4%, total 0 = 6.5%, over 2.5 = 51.7%, under 2.5 = 48.3%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.59, variance V = 2.67, SD = 1.63, E/V = 0.60, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.27, variance V = 2.12, SD = 1.45, E/V = 0.60, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.32, variance V = 6.26, SD = 2.50, E/V = 0.05, Min = -10, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Thursday
05-19-2022
08:36:09 UTC