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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Nations League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 470, period of time : 09-06-2018 - 06-18-2023


Match total

Average per match E = 2.43, variance V = 2.52, SD = 1.59, E/V = 0.96, Min = 0, Max = 8
P1 = 42.3%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 31.7%, total 0 = 9.6%, over 2.5 = 42.6%, under 2.5 = 57.4%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.36, variance V = 1.63, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.83, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.07, variance V = 1.21, SD = 1.10, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.29, variance V = 3.16, SD = 1.78, E/V = 0.09, Min = -6, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Nations League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Saturday
03-02-2024
13:03:14 UTC