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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Nations League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 306, period of time : 09-06-2018 - 10-10-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.34, variance V = 2.57, SD = 1.60, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 8
P1 = 42.5%, draw = 27.1%, P2 = 30.4%, total 0 = 11.8%, over 2.5 = 40.5%, under 2.5 = 59.5%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.35, variance V = 1.66, SD = 1.29, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.99, variance V = 1.13, SD = 1.06, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.35, variance V = 3.00, SD = 1.73, E/V = 0.12, Min = -5, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Nations League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Sunday
12-05-2021
04:36:08 UTC