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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Nations League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 413, period of time : 09-06-2018 - 06-14-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.38, variance V = 2.54, SD = 1.59, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 8
P1 = 41.4%, draw = 26.9%, P2 = 31.7%, total 0 = 10.4%, over 2.5 = 40.9%, under 2.5 = 59.1%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.34, variance V = 1.64, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.82, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.04, variance V = 1.20, SD = 1.09, E/V = 0.87, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Nations League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.13, SD = 1.77, E/V = 0.09, Min = -6, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Nations League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Wednesday
08-17-2022
22:17:04 UTC