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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europe Championship U21

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 379, period of time : 06-11-2011 - 09-27-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.98, variance V = 3.14, SD = 1.77, E/V = 0.95, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 45.9%, draw = 18.5%, P2 = 35.6%, total 0 = 5.5%, over 2.5 = 56.5%, under 2.5 = 43.5%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.67, variance V = 2.97, SD = 1.72, E/V = 0.56, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.31, variance V = 2.14, SD = 1.46, E/V = 0.61, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.36, variance V = 7.07, SD = 2.66, E/V = 0.05, Min = -9, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Friday
12-02-2022
20:50:29 UTC