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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europe Championship U21

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 557, period of time : 06-05-2013 - 06-07-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.98, variance V = 3.26, SD = 1.81, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 11
P1 = 46.0%, draw = 18.0%, P2 = 36.1%, total 0 = 5.6%, over 2.5 = 56.2%, under 2.5 = 43.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.66, variance V = 2.98, SD = 1.73, E/V = 0.56, Min = 0, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.32, variance V = 2.17, SD = 1.47, E/V = 0.61, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.35, variance V = 7.04, SD = 2.65, E/V = 0.05, Min = -9, Max = 11
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europe Championship U21: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Wednesday
10-28-2026
09:08:19 UTC