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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europe Championship

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 362, period of time : 06-08-2012 - 11-21-2023


Match total

Average per match E = 2.70, variance V = 2.77, SD = 1.66, E/V = 0.97, Min = 0, Max = 14
P1 = 43.4%, draw = 22.4%, P2 = 34.3%, total 0 = 5.2%, over 2.5 = 48.6%, under 2.5 = 51.4%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europe Championship: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europe Championship: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.50, variance V = 2.36, SD = 1.53, E/V = 0.64, Min = 0, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.19, variance V = 1.59, SD = 1.26, E/V = 0.75, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europe Championship: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.31, variance V = 5.11, SD = 2.26, E/V = 0.06, Min = -7, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europe Championship: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Saturday
03-02-2024
14:18:59 UTC