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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Champions League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2113, period of time : 02-12-2013 - 11-02-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.80, variance V = 2.90, SD = 1.70, E/V = 0.97, Min = 0, Max = 12
P1 = 46.2%, draw = 23.4%, P2 = 30.4%, total 0 = 7.5%, over 2.5 = 53.2%, under 2.5 = 46.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.60, variance V = 2.03, SD = 1.42, E/V = 0.79, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.21, variance V = 1.55, SD = 1.25, E/V = 0.78, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.39, variance V = 4.26, SD = 2.06, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Champions League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Tuesday
01-31-2023
14:47:52 UTC