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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Champions League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2114, period of time : 03-11-2014 - 02-21-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.81, variance V = 2.93, SD = 1.71, E/V = 0.96, Min = 0, Max = 12
P1 = 46.3%, draw = 23.5%, P2 = 30.2%, total 0 = 7.3%, over 2.5 = 53.2%, under 2.5 = 46.8%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.60, variance V = 2.00, SD = 1.41, E/V = 0.80, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.20, variance V = 1.53, SD = 1.24, E/V = 0.79, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.40, variance V = 4.13, SD = 2.03, E/V = 0.10, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Champions League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Monday
03-04-2024
19:44:42 UTC