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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Champions League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2112, period of time : 11-01-2011 - 10-20-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.79, variance V = 2.87, SD = 1.69, E/V = 0.97, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.60, variance V = 2.05, SD = 1.43, E/V = 0.78, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.19, variance V = 1.49, SD = 1.22, E/V = 0.80, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.41, variance V = 4.22, SD = 2.05, E/V = 0.10, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Champions League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Saturday
10-23-2021
05:54:13 UTC