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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Champions League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2112, period of time : 05-19-2012 - 05-04-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.79, variance V = 2.85, SD = 1.69, E/V = 0.98, Min = 0, Max = 12
P1 = 46.2%, draw = 23.2%, P2 = 30.6%, total 0 = 7.2%, over 2.5 = 53.0%, under 2.5 = 47.0%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.59, variance V = 2.02, SD = 1.42, E/V = 0.79, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.20, variance V = 1.49, SD = 1.22, E/V = 0.80, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Champions League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.39, variance V = 4.18, SD = 2.04, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Champions League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
Page time:

Thursday
05-19-2022
13:13:39 UTC