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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. AFC. World Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 572, period of time : 06-06-2009 - 06-07-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.84, variance V = 4.87, SD = 2.21, E/V = 0.58, Min = 0, Max = 15
P1 = 48.9%, draw = 19.8%, P2 = 31.3%, total 0 = 8.4%, over 2.5 = 49.3%, under 2.5 = 50.7%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.73, variance V = 4.34, SD = 2.08, E/V = 0.40, Min = 0, Max = 15
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.12, variance V = 2.31, SD = 1.52, E/V = 0.48, Min = 0, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.61, variance V = 8.41, SD = 2.90, E/V = 0.07, Min = -14, Max = 15
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Tuesday
04-16-2024
14:55:28 UTC