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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. AFC. World Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 560, period of time : 09-06-2008 - 11-16-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.86, variance V = 4.93, SD = 2.22, E/V = 0.58, Min = 0, Max = 15
P1 = 48.0%, draw = 20.0%, P2 = 32.0%, total 0 = 8.6%, over 2.5 = 49.8%, under 2.5 = 50.2%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.72, variance V = 4.39, SD = 2.09, E/V = 0.39, Min = 0, Max = 15
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.14, variance V = 2.33, SD = 1.53, E/V = 0.49, Min = 0, Max = 14
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.59, variance V = 8.50, SD = 2.92, E/V = 0.07, Min = -14, Max = 15
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

AFC. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Tuesday
12-07-2021
13:11:21 UTC