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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CAF. World Championship. Qualification

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 465, period of time : 03-28-2009 - 11-16-2021


Match total

Average per match E = 2.39, variance V = 2.58, SD = 1.61, E/V = 0.93, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 49.0%, draw = 26.7%, P2 = 24.3%, total 0 = 9.7%, over 2.5 = 41.5%, under 2.5 = 58.5%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.45, variance V = 1.79, SD = 1.34, E/V = 0.81, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 0.94, variance V = 1.13, SD = 1.06, E/V = 0.83, Min = 0, Max = 6
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.52, variance V = 3.26, SD = 1.81, E/V = 0.16, Min = -6, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CAF. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Thursday
05-19-2022
12:29:30 UTC