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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. UEFA. Europa League

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2566, period of time : 09-29-2016 - 07-11-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.75, variance V = 2.79, SD = 1.67, E/V = 0.99, Min = 0, Max = 10
P1 = 47.6%, draw = 23.2%, P2 = 29.2%, total 0 = 6.7%, over 2.5 = 51.6%, under 2.5 = 48.4%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

UEFA. Europa League: Poisson and Total PDF
UEFA. Europa League: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.60, variance V = 1.91, SD = 1.38, E/V = 0.84, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.15, variance V = 1.31, SD = 1.14, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 8
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

UEFA. Europa League: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.45, variance V = 3.66, SD = 1.91, E/V = 0.12, Min = -8, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

UEFA. Europa League: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Sunday
10-18-2026
00:21:01 UTC