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Betting odds and probabilities calculation of a baseball match

The probabilities and the betting odds calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics (see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS), the basic random variables have the Negative Binomial distribution.


Basic parameters of the betting line - Expected values of teams runs in the match
Runs 1 Runs 2 - Win 1 Draw Win 2 Margin, %
Match format:
To calculate the probabilities and the betting odds, in addition to the expectations (means) of teams runs in the match, it is also possible to specify variances of runs (they characterize the stability of teams results)
Target margins for the betting markets
Match Result Asian Handicap Over / Under - - - -


Asian Handicap (H) - probabilities, %
H-1.5-1-0.50+0.5+1+1.5+2+2.5
W1 ( H)38.138.154.454.454.454.465.765.774.5
Tie (H)16.311.38.8
W2 (-H)61.945.645.645.645.634.334.325.525.5
Baseball match: Runs Difference-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789101100.1 Baseball match: Runs Difference PDF
Asian Handicap (H) - odds
H-1.5-1-0.50+0.5+1+1.5+2+2.5
W1 ( H)2.492.071.751.751.751.541.451.311.28
Tie (H)5.808.4011
W2 (-H)1.531.732.082.082.082.442.773.383.73

Runs Over / Under - probabilities, %
6.577.588.599.51010.5
Over68.357.357.349.349.339.239.232.432.4
Equal11.08.010.16.8
Under31.731.742.742.750.750.760.860.867.6
Baseball match: Runs Total1234567891011121314151617181920212200.1 Baseball match: Runs Total PDF
Runs of Team 1: Over / Under
22.533.544.555.56
Over70.270.255.955.942.742.731.531.522.7
Equal13.814.313.211.28.8
Under16.029.829.844.144.157.357.368.568.5
Baseball match: Runs of Team 1123456789101100.1 Baseball match: Runs of Team 1 PDF
Runs of Team 2: Over / Under
22.533.544.555.56
Over68.468.453.953.940.740.729.829.821.2
Equal14.414.513.210.98.6
Under17.231.631.646.146.159.359.370.270.2
Baseball match: Runs of Team 2123456789101100.1 Baseball match: Runs of Team 2 PDF
Runs Over / Under - odds
6.577.588.599.51010.5
Over1.391.471.661.761.932.172.422.722.93
Equal8.60129.4014
Under3.002.652.222.041.871.681.561.451.41
Runs of Team 1: Over / Under
22.533.544.555.56
Over1.161.351.441.701.922.222.663.023.79
Equal6.906.607.208.5011
Under5.103.192.712.151.851.661.461.391.26
Runs of Team 2: Over / Under
22.533.544.555.56
Over1.181.391.491.762.012.332.823.194.08
Equal6.606.607.208.7011
Under4.693.012.542.061.781.601.421.351.23

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Thursday
09-23-2021
14:24:24 UTC