Betting odds and probabilities calculation of a baseball match

The probabilities and the betting odds calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics (see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS), the basic random variables have the Negative Binomial distribution.

Odds Probabilities

Basic parameters of the betting line - Expected values of teams runs in the match
Runs 1	Runs 2	-


Match format:	Without a draw	With a draw

To calculate the probabilities and the betting odds, in addition to the expectations (means) of teams runs in the match, it is also possible to specify variances of runs (they characterize the stability of teams results)

Target margins for the betting markets
Match Result	Asian Handicap	Over / Under	-	-	-	-

Asian Handicap (H) - probabilities, %
H	-1.5	-1	-0.5	0	+0.5	+1	+1.5	+2	+2.5
W1 ( H)	38.1	38.1	54.4	54.4	54.4	54.4	65.7	65.7	74.5
Tie (H)		16.3				11.3		8.8
W2 (-H)	61.9	45.6	45.6	45.6	45.6	34.3	34.3	25.5	25.5

Asian Handicap (H) - odds
H	-1.5	-1	-0.5	0	+0.5	+1	+1.5	+2	+2.5
W1 ( H)	2.49	2.07	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.54	1.45	1.31	1.28
Tie (H)		5.80				8.40		11
W2 (-H)	1.53	1.73	2.08	2.08	2.08	2.44	2.77	3.38	3.73

Runs Over / Under - probabilities, %
	6.5	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	10.5
Over	68.3	57.3	57.3	49.3	49.3	39.2	39.2	32.4	32.4
Equal		11.0		8.0		10.1		6.8
Under	31.7	31.7	42.7	42.7	50.7	50.7	60.8	60.8	67.6

Runs of Team 1: Over / Under
	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5	5	5.5	6
Over	70.2	70.2	55.9	55.9	42.7	42.7	31.5	31.5	22.7
Equal	13.8		14.3		13.2		11.2		8.8
Under	16.0	29.8	29.8	44.1	44.1	57.3	57.3	68.5	68.5

Runs of Team 2: Over / Under
	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5	5	5.5	6
Over	68.4	68.4	53.9	53.9	40.7	40.7	29.8	29.8	21.2
Equal	14.4		14.5		13.2		10.9		8.6
Under	17.2	31.6	31.6	46.1	46.1	59.3	59.3	70.2	70.2

Runs Over / Under - odds
	6.5	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	10.5
Over	1.39	1.47	1.66	1.76	1.93	2.17	2.42	2.72	2.93
Equal		8.60		12		9.40		14
Under	3.00	2.65	2.22	2.04	1.87	1.68	1.56	1.45	1.41
Runs of Team 1: Over / Under
	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5	5	5.5	6
Over	1.16	1.35	1.44	1.70	1.92	2.22	2.66	3.02	3.79
Equal	6.90		6.60		7.20		8.50		11
Under	5.10	3.19	2.71	2.15	1.85	1.66	1.46	1.39	1.26
Runs of Team 2: Over / Under
	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5	5	5.5	6
Over	1.18	1.39	1.49	1.76	2.01	2.33	2.82	3.19	4.08
Equal	6.60		6.60		7.20		8.70		11
Under	4.69	3.01	2.54	2.06	1.78	1.60	1.42	1.35	1.23

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Thursday
03-23-2023
07:37:47 UTC

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