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Betting odds and probabilities calculation of a football (soccer) match

The betting odds and probabilities calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics (see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS), the basic random variables have the distribution of Poisson or Skellam.


Match parameters - Team goals estimate or basic odds (1X2 [+ O/U])
Goals 1Goals 2Win 1DrawWin 2Margin, %
Goals SumGoals DiffTotalOverUnderMargin, %
Match Score1st Half2nd HalfExtra TimePlayed MinutesMatch Status
Formulas for approximate estimate of teams goals in a match are as follows: Goals_1 = [team_1 attack (home average) + team_2 defense (away average)] / 2, Goals_2 = [team_2 attack (away average)) + team_1 defense (home average)] / 2
Target margins for the betting markets
Match Result Asian Handicap Over / Under Exact Goals Correct Score HT / FT


Asian Handicap (H) - probabilities, %
H-2-1.75-1.5-1.25-1-0.75-0.5-0.250+0.25+0.5+0.75+1+1.25+1.5+1.75+2
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Half 1
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Half 2
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Asian Handicap (H) - odds
H-2-1.75-1.5-1.25-1-0.75-0.5-0.250+0.25+0.5+0.75+1+1.25+1.5+1.75+2
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 
Half 1
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 
Half 2
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 

Goals Over / Under - probabilities, %
00.250.50.7511.251.51.7522.252.52.7533.253.53.754
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals of Team 1
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals of Team 2
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals in Half 1
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals in Half 2
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals Over / Under - odds
00.250.50.7511.251.51.7522.252.52.7533.253.53.754
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals of Team 1
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals of Team 2
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals in Half 1
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals in Half 2
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 

Goal - Interval - probabilities, odds
Interval 1Probability, % / OddsInterval 2Probability, % / OddsNo goal
Goal 11 - 96 / 97 - 90+100.0 / /
Goal 21 - 96 / 97 - 90+100.0 / /
Last
goal		1 - 96 / 97 - 90+100.0 / /
Goal in time interval05101520253035404550556065707580859000.51 Goal in time interval - sport12x.com graphicsProbability for Goal 2Probability for Goal 1Probability for last Goal

Correct Score - probabilities, %
1:02:02:13:03:13:24:04:15:0
         
0:01:12:23:34:45:5other
       
0:10:21:20:31:32:30:41:40:5
         
Correct Score - odds
1:02:02:13:03:13:24:04:15:0
         
0:01:12:23:34:45:5other
      
0:10:21:20:31:32:30:41:40:5
         

Half Time / Full Time - probabilities, %
1/11/X1/2X/1X/XX/22/12/X2/2
         
Half Time / Full Time - odds
1/11/X1/2X/1X/XX/22/12/X2/2
         

Page time:

Saturday
03-25-2023
08:50:46 UTC