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Odds and probabilities calculation of a football (soccer) match

The probabilities (odds) calculation is based on the methods of mathematical statistics (see SPORTS and MATHEMATICS), the basic random variables are the distribution of Poisson or Skellam.

Odds Probabilities

Match parameters - Team Goals estimate or basic Odds (1X2 [+ O/U])
Goals 1 Goals 2 Win 1 Draw Win 2 Margin, %
Goals Sum Goals Dif. Total Over Under Margin, %
Target margins for the Markets
Match Result (1X2) Asian Handicap Over / Under Exact Goals Correct Score HT / FT


Asian Handicap (H) - probability, %
H-2-1.75-1.5-1.25-1-0.75-0.5-0.250+0.25+0.5+0.75+1+1.25+1.5+1.75+2
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Half 1
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Half 2
W1 ( H)         
Tie (H)         
W2 (-H)         
Asian Handicap (H)
H-2-1.75-1.5-1.25-1-0.75-0.5-0.250+0.25+0.5+0.75+1+1.25+1.5+1.75+2
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 
Half 1
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 
Half 2
W1 ( H)                 
Tie (H)                 
W2 (-H)                 
Goals Over / Under - probability, %
00.250.50.7511.251.51.7522.252.52.7533.253.53.754
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals of Team 1
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals of Team 2
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals in Half 1
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals in Half 2
Over         
Equal         
Under         
Goals Over / Under
00.250.50.7511.251.51.7522.252.52.7533.253.53.754
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals of Team 1
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals of Team 2
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals in Half 1
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goals in Half 2
Over                 
Equal                 
Under                 
Goal - Interval
Interval 1Probability, % / OddsInterval 2Probability, % / OddsNo goal
Goal 11 - 1 / 2 - 90+ / 100.0 /
Goal 21 - 1 / 2 - 90+ / 100.0 /
Last
goal		1 - 1 / 2 - 90+ / 100.0 /
Goal in time interval05101520253035404550556065707580859000.51 Goal in time interval - sport12x.com graphicsProbability for Goal 2Probability for Goal 1Probability for last Goal
Correct Score - probability, %
1:02:02:13:03:13:24:04:15:0
         
0:01:12:23:34:45:5other
       
0:10:21:20:31:32:30:41:40:5
         
Correct Score
1:02:02:13:03:13:24:04:15:0
         
0:01:12:23:34:45:5other
      
0:10:21:20:31:32:30:41:40:5
         
Half Time / Full Time - probability, %
1/11/X1/2X/1X/XX/22/12/X2/2
         
Half Time / Full Time
1/11/X1/2X/1X/XX/22/12/X2/2
         

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Wednesday
08-05-2020
02:37:21 UTC