Mathematical statistics of goals - Football

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)

Quantity of matches (sample size) : 80388, period of time : 04-16-2021 - 04-15-2024

Match total

Average per match E = 2.64, variance V = 2.80, SD = 1.67, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 14
P1 = 43.9%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 30.2%, total 0 = 8.0%, over 2.5 = 49.1%, under 2.5 = 50.9%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.47, variance V = 1.66, SD = 1.29, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.17, variance V = 1.34, SD = 1.16, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.19, SD = 1.79, E/V = 0.09, Min = -12, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)